Smacks Ahoy!

The results are in: New Zealand voters overwhelmingly back smacking as part of good parental correction, and do not believe it should be made a criminal offense. So the debate over corporal punishment will continue for the foreseeable future, though Prime Minister John Key of the center-right National Party recently stated,

"My view is the law is working as was intended but I think the very strong message that comes through from this referendum is that New Zealand parents don't want to see themselves or their neighbours or anybody else criminalised for lightly smacking a child."

Key made known his distaste for the wording of the referendum from the start, and many "Yes" supporters said the question was leading, accounting for the lopsided result of the vote. So decide for yourself,

Once again, the question, as posed by main-in ballot:

Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?

And the result:

Yes------------201 541------------11.98%
No-----------1 470 755-----------87.40%

Election News Snapshot - Afghanistan

Despite threats from an increasingly insurgent Taliban, voters turned out for today's Presidential election in Afghanistan, albeit at lower levels than the first go-round in 2004. Early predictors indicate another victory for current President Hamid Karzai, though he probably will not pull enough of the vote to avoid a runoff. His likely opponent in a second round would be Abdullah Abdullah, the candidate representing the United National Front - a hodgepodge of parties mainly representing the multi-ethnic Northern tribes. Karzai is an independent, although his main support comes from the majority Pashtun South. The disparate backgrounds of the two leading candidates lent an ethnic tinge to the campaign that would have dominated headlines had it not been for the brutal Taliban offensive.

End of Democracy in Niger?

Though results have not yet been released, chances are today's Constitutional Referendum in Niger will pass, giving President Mamadou Tandja new sweeping powers, including unlimited terms in office. Opposition leaders, such as former Prime Minister Mohamadou Issoufou called on "sincere democrats and patriots" to boycott the election, and the Associated Press reported that turnout was very low. The referendum will also turn the National Assembly into a bicameral legislature, likely abolishing the post of Prime Minister, making the President both Head of State and Head of Government.

New Zealand's "Smacking" Referendum Starts Today

The question, as posed to Kiwi voters by mail-in ballot, will be:

Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?

Voters will have until the 21st of August to respond, and the results will be non-binding. The referendum arose out of the 2007 passage of a bill removing the legal protection of corporal punishment from the criminal code. Opposition groups feared this bill would criminalize what they believe is a matter of conscience for parents. A 'Yes' vote on the question would likely preserve the status quo, while a 'No' vote would probably once again raise the debate in Parliament.

Major Upset in Moldova

Parliamentary elections held yesterday in Moldova saw the Party of Communists (PCRM) lose control over the body in the second legislative contest this year. President Vladimir Voronin, whose term has officially expired, dissolved Parliament after April elections when he failed to garner enough support for his chosen successor. Presidents in Moldova are elected by Parliament, and the results of the elections in April left Voronin and the PCRM one vote shy of the 61 necessary to approve a President. The results of this election will give four opposition parties a combined 53 seats against the Communists' 48, as long as PCRM-defector Marian Lupu's center-left Democratic Party agrees to join the opposition coalition. On the upside, Moldova may see its first real change in leadership in years, leading to more openness towards Europe; on the downside, no party has nearly enough votes to select a new President, which may trigger a constitutional crisis and further political turmoil.

First Returns Slow out of Guinea-Bissau

The small West African nation of Guinea-Bissau held the run-off for its Presidential election yesterday, with results yet to be released. Malam Bacai Sinha of the ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) has been widely favored since the first round over opposition leader Kumba Iala of the Party for Social Renewal (PRS). The election was made necessary after the assassination of President Joao Bernardo Vieira in March. I will be scouring the news services for the first reports, and I will post them here as I come across them.

Failed Election in Kyrgyzstan

In a nation once hailed as a "beacon of democracy" in central Asia following 2005's Tulip Revolution which propelled Kurmanbek Bakiyev to power, yesterday's Presidential election unfortunately failed to meet international standards of freedom and fairness. Opposition leaders, including top challenger Almazbek Atambayev of the Social Democratic Party, accused Bakiyev of "ballot-stuffing" and "election monitor...intimidat[ion]." Atambayev had officially pulled out of the election just before polls opened due to a perceived government-controlled media blackout of the opposition. This election has reflected increasingly un-democratic behavior from Bakiyev, who seemed to be basing his decision earlier this year about allowing US troops to remain at Manas Air Base on whether the Russians or Americans would offer the most lucrative package. Thankfully the opposition has decided to take the high road and challenge the results through legal means. If the best mass protests can get you is a Bakiyev, maybe that's not always the route to go.

Iran: A Study in How Not to Rig an Election

Lesson 1: Don't pick candidates you wouldn't want to win. I always thought Iran could serve as an example to the world's other great popular-authoritarian regime in China; in order to give the people a semblance of democracy, have the Guardian Council - or Politburo, as the case may be - select a few pre-approved candidates, and allow the people to elect their preference. In recent memory, this has seemed to work in Iran, with the public alternating hard-liners with perceived "reformists," and the Ayatollah not raising a fuss. But trouble starts when, as Supreme Leader, you take a particular fancy to the sitting President. So why, if you're controlling the process in the first place, would you nominate anyone who could possibly be a threat to Ahmadinejad? Least of all, two Reformists? If anything, you should be nominating candidates even more conservative than Ahmadinejad with absolutely no charisma.

Lesson 2: Don't allow open campaigning. Take a lesson from Hugo Chavez, and muscle out the opposition from the media. Crack down on uninhibited internet usage, a la the Communist Party in China. And for heaven's sake, don't permit free assembly during the campaign, only to revoke it the day after the election. You gotta do it slowly, so no one notices.

Lesson 3: Don't make it a landslide. This should be Election-Rigging 101. In a hotly-contested election, no one is going to believe a result of 63 to 34 percent against the opposition candidate with all the momentum. First, take a few days, pretend like you're reconfirming all of the results, and announce that your incumbent President has won a narrow majority, with, let's say, 52% of the vote, and Mousavi grabbing a respectable 45%. Ahmadinejad still wins outright, and has the appearance of a mandate, since he was not able to pass the threshhold to avoid a second round in the 2005 elections. And while that only leaves 3% to divide between the remaining two candidates, the hard-liner Rezai will fall in line, and you'll only have the irritation of Mehdi Karroubi, who did nothing but complain about the last elections as well.

Lesson 4: Don't threaten protesters. Any authoritarian regime knows that if you are going to use violence against your populace, you blame seedy anti-Government extremists for the turmoil after the fact. You don't make thinly-veiled threats to your public, as Ayatollah Khamenei did at prayers this past Friday, blaming opposition leaders that you chose for "bloodshed and chaos" that may result if protests continue. Not only are you making an unequivocal announcement to the world that you have no respect for human rights, but human nature dictates that interest in the opposition will double out of sheer spite.

A Warrant Out for Sudan's Bashir

On March 4th, the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands issued a warrant for the arrest of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for Crimes Against Humanity related to the continuing crisis in Darfur. Bashir has been in power since a 1989 coup toppled the democratically-elected government, and he has retained the Presidency since appointing himself in 1993. Some neighboring countries and Arab League states have criticized the warrant citing sovereignty issues (which it certainly has), and fearing further instability (though how could it get any worse?). But whether or not an arrest is carried out, Bashir will unlikely remain President beyond elections in April - the first free contest since 1986. These elections will be followed by a 2010 referendum in the Darfur region to decide whether to become an autonomous entity within Sudan, and a 2011 referendum in Southern Sudan - a currently self-governing area in Sudan - to consider full independence.

Tragedy in Zimbabwe

In an incident that defies imagining, Susan Tsvangirai, wife of newly installed Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, was killed when their vehicle was hit head-on by a passing truck. The Prime Minister sustained light head injuries, and a driver and bodyguard also survived the accident. So far, reports conflict as to how the driver of the truck - which was registered to the US Embassy, reportedly on a British aid mission - managed to veer so violently onto the other side of the road: US ambassador Jim McGee speculated "the driver might have been trying to avoid a pothole," while the driver "told police he had fallen asleep at the wheel." But some Tsvangirai supporters insist the accident smacks of foul play: "This is how they killed their opponents in the 1980s," said MDC Information Minister Nelson Chamisa, referring to Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party. By all accounts, Mrs. Tsvangirai was much beloved, and my heart goes out to all Zimbabweans at this horrifically difficult time.

Also this week, after agreeing to allow bail to be posted for Deputy Agriculture Minister Roy Bennett, Judge Livingstone Chipadze was tossed in prison for "criminal abuse of his office." As much as the PM has faith that Mugabe can be tempered in a power-sharing agreement, I'm beginning to think there is no hope for Zimbabwe while Mugabe retains any power. I mean, by now there must even be a few ZANU-PF members out there annoyed with the President's insane antics. I just hope that despite the dire political situation, food and medical aid continues to get through to those throughout the country in desperate need.

Political Chaos in Guinea-Bissau

It began Sunday night, when Army chief and critic of the administration General Batista Tagme Na Wai was killed by a bomb planted at his office. The following morning, President Joao Bernardo Vieira was shot to death in his home. While President Vieira's death was likely retaliatory, the motive behind the General's death remains unclear. But what initially looked to many like a coup attempt, and could have denigrated into ethnic violence, was dealt with calmly and smoothly by the remaining leadership. Raimundo Pereira, the President of the National People's Assembly (Guinea-Bissau's parliament), was sworn in as President of the country on Tuesday; and according to a Voice of America editorial, Navy Commander Jose Zamura Induta assured that "the attack on the president was an isolated incident, it did not represent a coup d'etat, and the armed forces will respect democratic principles as the nation's leaders work through the crisis."

A few need-to-know details about Guinea-Bissau's recent political history:

• President Vieira and the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) dominated Guinea-Bissauan politics from 1980 to 1999.
• 1994 marked the first multi-party elections in the nation's history, with Vieira elected to the Presidency in a contest widely considered free and fair.
• Civil war broke out in 1998 between the military establishment and forces loyal to the President, leading to a successful coup in May 1999 that ousted Vieira. Kumba Iala of the PAIGC-rival Social Renewal Party (PRS) won elections later that year.
• President Iala was ousted in a bloodless coup by the military establishment in 2003, paving the way for Vieira's return to power as an independent candidate in the elections of 2005.

Election News Snapshot - Liechtenstein

One of Europe's smallest nations, Liechtenstein, earlier this month elected a new Parliament, and with it a new Prime Minister. The winning party, the Patriotic Union - better known by its German abbreviation 'VU' - was the junior coalition partner in the last government, but managed to overtake the Progressive Citizens' Party (in German, FBP) with an outright majority of 13 seats in the 25 seat Landtag. As both the VU and FBP are center-right parties with "no major ideological differences," PM-designate and VU member Klaus Tschutscher has vowed to continue the coalition government. The only noticible distinction between the two parties has been Tschutscher's promise to work more closely with the US and European Union on tax-evasion issues resulting from Liechtenstein's banking secrecy laws. One might argue that stance puts the VU more in line with typical European Christian Democratic parties, making the FBP more of a National Conservative party, but that judgment is probably a huge leap. The social-democratic Free List also managed a mandate, garnering 8.9% of the vote.

Results of Parliamentary Election, 8 February 2009

• Patriotic Union-------------------13
• Progressive Citizens' Party------11
• Free List-----------------------------1

Election News Snapshot - Switzerland

Earlier this month, Swiss voters elected to extend the agreement allowing free movement of workers between Switzerland and the European Union. The main bone of contention was the expansion of the EU to include two of the poorer countries in Eastern Europe, Romania and Bulgaria. The 19 percentage-point margin of victory was something of a shock to pollsters, who predicted a much closer vote, swinging toward the 'No' camp. This will undoubtedly be seen as a positive development to EU policy wonks, who are still reeling from the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty - which would formalize an EU constitution - by Irish voters in a national referendum last June. Pro-Europe parties in Switzerland will take heart as well, but Swiss accession to the EU is such a contentious issue - in this country that did not join the United Nations until 2002 - that it will unlikely occur anytime in the near future.

Results of Referendum, 8 February 2009

• Yes-----59.6%
• No------40.4%

Israel Update

President Shimon Peres tapped Likud head and second-place finisher Binyamin Netanyahu to form a goverment Friday. Bibi has been making concerted efforts to form a broad 'unity government' with Kadima and Labor, though so far his overtures - including talking tough on Iran (a widely popular position in Israeli politics) - have been rebuffed. The problem is other foreign policy issues on which the right and left diverge, including peace talks with the Palestinians and Syrians. As Kadima chief Tzipi Livni explained, Bibi is "asking us to join a coalition that he would first establish with Shas, which demanded that I stop negotiating with the Palestinians, and with [Jewish Home] and National Union, and with Bibi himself, who meanwhile refuses to talk about a two-state solution." But Tzipi still walks a tightrope, as many in her party - even Knesset Speaker and Labor-defector Dalia Itzik - would rather be in coalition with a political rival, than lose influence sitting in opposition. Tzipi is very likely holding out for serious political concessions from Bibi, forcing him to take a more moderate stance on the Palestinian issue before a government is formed. Or, more cynically, she may be pushing him into a coalition with right-wing parties, which could collapse in short order, giving Kadima another shot in snap elections. Honestly, there is a good argument for either tactic.

Political Update - Zimbabwe

President Robert Mugabe celebrated his 85th birthday today. He has maintained power in Zimbabwe since 1980, and presided over an especially chaotic time since amending the constitution in 2000 to give security forces free reign to seize white-owned farms. Facing hyperinflation, hunger, and the government’s violent intimidation of the political opposition, Zimbabweans – by most accounts – ousted Mugabe from power in the 2008 general elections. Mugabe’s opponent for the Presidency, Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), won the first round of voting, very likely passing the 50% threshold necessary to prevent a second round. Though when results were released in May – a full month after the election on 29 March – Tsvangirai failed to meet the threshold, and Mugabe called for a run-off. Tsvangirai initially agreed, but as violence continued throughout the country, he recanted, Mugabe was sworn in, and pressure intensified for Mugabe to step down for good. International involvement in the crisis was led by a South African power-sharing initiative; by January of this year – a full nine months after the election – an agreement was finalized between the MDC and Mugabe’s ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party, key points of which include:

• Mugabe remaining as President,
• Tsvangirai becoming Prime Minister (a position abolished by Mugabe in 1987),
• A Cabinet to be presided over by Mugabe,
• A select Council of Ministers to be presided over by Tsvangirai, including 16 MDC members (three of whom belong to the smaller rival MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara) and 15 ZANU-PF members,
• and perhaps most significantly, a reconfiguring of the notorious Joint Operations Command – which includes the heads of the military and security operations in the country – into the National Security Council, on which Tsvangirai and his deputies will sit.

In the last two weeks, the agreement has been passed by parliament, and President Mugabe has been busy stuffing his cabinet with political allies and arresting Tsvangirai’s white Deputy Agriculture Minister Roy Bennett on questionable weapons charges. The Zimbabwean economy is in such dire straits that we can only hope the agreement can bring some stability, though one might argue that stability is not one of Mugabe’s strong suits.

Election News Snapshot - Venezuela

The ‘Bolivarian Revolution’ of President Hugo Chavez continues. Venezuelan voters chose Sunday to rid the constitution of all references to term limits, paving the way for a third Chavez term in 2012. This comes ten years after winning his first referendum to extend Presidential terms from five to six years, and limits from one to two terms, and a little over a year since losing his first attempt to kill term limits altogether. For the most part election monitors declared the vote to be free and fair, though the President’s use of state media to run his ‘Si’ ('Yes') campaign, and continued harassment of opposition media has been roundly criticized by foreign observers. To this point, Chavez has seemed to respect the democratic institution of the free election itself – as evidenced by his losses in regional elections last December – though if trends toward power grabbing continue, who knows how long this will last.

Results of Constitutional Referendum, 15 February 2009

• Yes-----54.85%
• No------45.14%

Election News Snapshot - Israel

Binyamin (‘Bibi’) Netanyahu won an important victory today on his quest for the Premiership. Though his center-right Likud (Consolidation) party took second place in last week’s election - one mandate short of Tzipi Livni’s centrist Kadima (Forward) party - both parties fell well short of the 60+1 seat majority necessary in the 120 seat Knesset. That left Avigdor Lieberman's third place party, the right-wing, Russian immigrant-favored Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is Our Home) in a position to decide the next Prime Minister. After meeting with President Shimon Peres this morning, Lieberman announced he would support Netanyahu as PM, as long as he pursued a broad unity government with Kadima. Ms. Livni made it known that she would rather lead Kadima into the opposition than serve in a Netanyahu-led government, but she will almost certainly face pressure from the right in her own party to take at least a partial share of power. Still others in Kadima see Lieberman’s announcement as a stab in the back, as Tzipi had alienated many of the left-wing parties by offering to meet all of Lieberman’s demands - including handing Yisrael Beiteinu one of the top three cabinet portfolios (either foreign affairs, defense, or treasury). President Peres has six days to decide on which candidate he will ask to form a government, after which that candidate will have 42 more days to form a stable coalition.

Results of Parliamentary Election, 10 February 2009

• Kadima (Center)----------------------------------------------------28
• Likud (Center-Right)----------------------------------------------27
• Yisrael Beiteinu (Ultra-Nationalist)-----------------------------15
• Labor (Center-Left)------------------------------------------------13
• Shas (Sephardic Orthodox interest)-----------------------------11
• United Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox)-----------------------5
• United Arab List - Ta'al (Bedouin/Israeli Arab interest)-----4
• National Union (Hard Right)-------------------------------------4
• Hadash (Communist)----------------------------------------------4
• Meretz (Social Democratic)---------------------------------------3
• Jewish Home (Right-Wing/Settlers' Interest)-----------------3
• Balad (Left-Wing/Arab Nationalist)-----------------------------3