Election News Snapshot - Liechtenstein

One of Europe's smallest nations, Liechtenstein, earlier this month elected a new Parliament, and with it a new Prime Minister. The winning party, the Patriotic Union - better known by its German abbreviation 'VU' - was the junior coalition partner in the last government, but managed to overtake the Progressive Citizens' Party (in German, FBP) with an outright majority of 13 seats in the 25 seat Landtag. As both the VU and FBP are center-right parties with "no major ideological differences," PM-designate and VU member Klaus Tschutscher has vowed to continue the coalition government. The only noticible distinction between the two parties has been Tschutscher's promise to work more closely with the US and European Union on tax-evasion issues resulting from Liechtenstein's banking secrecy laws. One might argue that stance puts the VU more in line with typical European Christian Democratic parties, making the FBP more of a National Conservative party, but that judgment is probably a huge leap. The social-democratic Free List also managed a mandate, garnering 8.9% of the vote.

Results of Parliamentary Election, 8 February 2009

• Patriotic Union-------------------13
• Progressive Citizens' Party------11
• Free List-----------------------------1

Election News Snapshot - Switzerland

Earlier this month, Swiss voters elected to extend the agreement allowing free movement of workers between Switzerland and the European Union. The main bone of contention was the expansion of the EU to include two of the poorer countries in Eastern Europe, Romania and Bulgaria. The 19 percentage-point margin of victory was something of a shock to pollsters, who predicted a much closer vote, swinging toward the 'No' camp. This will undoubtedly be seen as a positive development to EU policy wonks, who are still reeling from the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty - which would formalize an EU constitution - by Irish voters in a national referendum last June. Pro-Europe parties in Switzerland will take heart as well, but Swiss accession to the EU is such a contentious issue - in this country that did not join the United Nations until 2002 - that it will unlikely occur anytime in the near future.

Results of Referendum, 8 February 2009

• Yes-----59.6%
• No------40.4%

Israel Update

President Shimon Peres tapped Likud head and second-place finisher Binyamin Netanyahu to form a goverment Friday. Bibi has been making concerted efforts to form a broad 'unity government' with Kadima and Labor, though so far his overtures - including talking tough on Iran (a widely popular position in Israeli politics) - have been rebuffed. The problem is other foreign policy issues on which the right and left diverge, including peace talks with the Palestinians and Syrians. As Kadima chief Tzipi Livni explained, Bibi is "asking us to join a coalition that he would first establish with Shas, which demanded that I stop negotiating with the Palestinians, and with [Jewish Home] and National Union, and with Bibi himself, who meanwhile refuses to talk about a two-state solution." But Tzipi still walks a tightrope, as many in her party - even Knesset Speaker and Labor-defector Dalia Itzik - would rather be in coalition with a political rival, than lose influence sitting in opposition. Tzipi is very likely holding out for serious political concessions from Bibi, forcing him to take a more moderate stance on the Palestinian issue before a government is formed. Or, more cynically, she may be pushing him into a coalition with right-wing parties, which could collapse in short order, giving Kadima another shot in snap elections. Honestly, there is a good argument for either tactic.

Political Update - Zimbabwe

President Robert Mugabe celebrated his 85th birthday today. He has maintained power in Zimbabwe since 1980, and presided over an especially chaotic time since amending the constitution in 2000 to give security forces free reign to seize white-owned farms. Facing hyperinflation, hunger, and the government’s violent intimidation of the political opposition, Zimbabweans – by most accounts – ousted Mugabe from power in the 2008 general elections. Mugabe’s opponent for the Presidency, Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), won the first round of voting, very likely passing the 50% threshold necessary to prevent a second round. Though when results were released in May – a full month after the election on 29 March – Tsvangirai failed to meet the threshold, and Mugabe called for a run-off. Tsvangirai initially agreed, but as violence continued throughout the country, he recanted, Mugabe was sworn in, and pressure intensified for Mugabe to step down for good. International involvement in the crisis was led by a South African power-sharing initiative; by January of this year – a full nine months after the election – an agreement was finalized between the MDC and Mugabe’s ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party, key points of which include:

• Mugabe remaining as President,
• Tsvangirai becoming Prime Minister (a position abolished by Mugabe in 1987),
• A Cabinet to be presided over by Mugabe,
• A select Council of Ministers to be presided over by Tsvangirai, including 16 MDC members (three of whom belong to the smaller rival MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara) and 15 ZANU-PF members,
• and perhaps most significantly, a reconfiguring of the notorious Joint Operations Command – which includes the heads of the military and security operations in the country – into the National Security Council, on which Tsvangirai and his deputies will sit.

In the last two weeks, the agreement has been passed by parliament, and President Mugabe has been busy stuffing his cabinet with political allies and arresting Tsvangirai’s white Deputy Agriculture Minister Roy Bennett on questionable weapons charges. The Zimbabwean economy is in such dire straits that we can only hope the agreement can bring some stability, though one might argue that stability is not one of Mugabe’s strong suits.

Election News Snapshot - Venezuela

The ‘Bolivarian Revolution’ of President Hugo Chavez continues. Venezuelan voters chose Sunday to rid the constitution of all references to term limits, paving the way for a third Chavez term in 2012. This comes ten years after winning his first referendum to extend Presidential terms from five to six years, and limits from one to two terms, and a little over a year since losing his first attempt to kill term limits altogether. For the most part election monitors declared the vote to be free and fair, though the President’s use of state media to run his ‘Si’ ('Yes') campaign, and continued harassment of opposition media has been roundly criticized by foreign observers. To this point, Chavez has seemed to respect the democratic institution of the free election itself – as evidenced by his losses in regional elections last December – though if trends toward power grabbing continue, who knows how long this will last.

Results of Constitutional Referendum, 15 February 2009

• Yes-----54.85%
• No------45.14%

Election News Snapshot - Israel

Binyamin (‘Bibi’) Netanyahu won an important victory today on his quest for the Premiership. Though his center-right Likud (Consolidation) party took second place in last week’s election - one mandate short of Tzipi Livni’s centrist Kadima (Forward) party - both parties fell well short of the 60+1 seat majority necessary in the 120 seat Knesset. That left Avigdor Lieberman's third place party, the right-wing, Russian immigrant-favored Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is Our Home) in a position to decide the next Prime Minister. After meeting with President Shimon Peres this morning, Lieberman announced he would support Netanyahu as PM, as long as he pursued a broad unity government with Kadima. Ms. Livni made it known that she would rather lead Kadima into the opposition than serve in a Netanyahu-led government, but she will almost certainly face pressure from the right in her own party to take at least a partial share of power. Still others in Kadima see Lieberman’s announcement as a stab in the back, as Tzipi had alienated many of the left-wing parties by offering to meet all of Lieberman’s demands - including handing Yisrael Beiteinu one of the top three cabinet portfolios (either foreign affairs, defense, or treasury). President Peres has six days to decide on which candidate he will ask to form a government, after which that candidate will have 42 more days to form a stable coalition.

Results of Parliamentary Election, 10 February 2009

• Kadima (Center)----------------------------------------------------28
• Likud (Center-Right)----------------------------------------------27
• Yisrael Beiteinu (Ultra-Nationalist)-----------------------------15
• Labor (Center-Left)------------------------------------------------13
• Shas (Sephardic Orthodox interest)-----------------------------11
• United Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox)-----------------------5
• United Arab List - Ta'al (Bedouin/Israeli Arab interest)-----4
• National Union (Hard Right)-------------------------------------4
• Hadash (Communist)----------------------------------------------4
• Meretz (Social Democratic)---------------------------------------3
• Jewish Home (Right-Wing/Settlers' Interest)-----------------3
• Balad (Left-Wing/Arab Nationalist)-----------------------------3